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The war of the World

December 20th 2009 02:31

According to Andrew Demetriou and David Gallop, the AFL and NRL want nothing more than for Australia to win the right to host the 2018 or 2022 World Cup. According to Frank Lowy, the FFA is convinced that all the football codes would benefit from such an outcome. These men are lying.

Hence, we have a situation in which the FFA is trying desperately to prevail in an extraordinarily challenging fight, while its two main local competitors are trying desperately – if subtly – to ensure its defeat.

At first glance, the round ball game seems to be making a valid point when it says that Aussie Rules and league stand to gain from a successful Australian bid. After all, the federal government would pour money into the infrastructure that they rely on, such as stadiums, training facilities and transportation links. Therefore, Lowy and friends conclude, both codes can expect to make advances that they wouldn’t otherwise make, a point that Demetriou and Gallop calculatingly pretend to accept.

On closer inspection, however, football’s argument collapses, as Demetriou, Gallop and Lowy know full well. For while the AFL and NRL would make a gross gain from the World Cup, they would end up recording a net loss. That’s because although they would take a small step forward, their increasingly strong rival would take a giant leap, meaning that this absolute expansion would result in a relative contraction. In a sporting environment as competitive as Australia’s, it’s less important for governing bodies to increase their amount of pie than their share of pie. For the stronger party will always try to bully its weaker opponents, as evidenced by the AFL’s push into the rugby league heartland of western Sydney. Having dished out an incalculable number of beatings to football over the years, the AFL and NRL are terrified by the prospect of their former whipping boy growing strong enough to give them a taste of their own medicine.

The benefits football stands to gain from hosting the World Cup are colossal. When the Socceroos defeated Uruguay and subsequently advanced to the second round of the World Cup, it gave the code the greatest credibility it had ever experienced – a glow it continues to bask in several years on. Staging the tournament would trump that umpteen times over. With tens of thousands of fans joining some of the planet’s finest athletes in Australia, the excitement generated would be like nothing the nation had witnessed since the unprecedentedly heady days of the Sydney Olympics. Football would saturate the media; football would be on everyone’s lips. In short, it would be the most comprehensive publicity campaign any of this country’s sports had ever enjoyed. Having watched throbbing stadiums cheering on the likes of the Socceroos and Brazil, and having absorbed the monumental interest being shown by billions of people overseas, Aussie Rules and league would inevitably look less attractive by comparison.

That is why the AFL and NRL don’t want Australia to host the World Cup; that is why the FFA does. Most importantly, though, the punters – and thus the federal government – want it. As a result, Demetriou and Gallop have been forced to tread carefully, as they understand that it would be a PR disaster if they were thought to be impeding the bid, or harbouring negative feelings towards it. So, through gritted teeth, they trumpet the official line, proclaiming their support, while agreeing that it would benefit their codes too.

The recent outbreak of dissent from Demetriou and Gallop needs to be seen in this context. By issuing warnings to the FFA about stadium availability and crying foul about disruption to their 2018 or 2022 seasons, they have tested the waters to see how much rebelliousness will be tolerated. They have prodded the FFA, rather than thumped it, because open defiance would be considered unpatriotic. And the two appear to have gotten the balance right, with the general view being that they were not hysterically attacking the bid, but raising legitimate concerns.

Ironically, though, Demetriou and Gallop may have actually strengthened the FFA’s hand. For as Sport: The Australian Disease has previously argued, the only way to snare the World Cup will be to appeal to the emotions of the 24 members of FIFA’s Executive Committee. It won’t be done by telling people that we have the best infrastructure, because we don’t. However, a case can be made for awarding the tournament to Australia on the basis that it’s the only part of the world yet to be conquered by the global game. South Africa will be hosting the next World Cup for emotional reasons; if the FFA can convince FIFA that Australia is a ‘final frontier’ that needs to be snatched from other sports, it may end up doing the same in 2018 or 2022. So when the AFL and NRL attack football, they may unwittingly be attacking themselves.

Regardless, they need to realise that this is a battle they cannot win. The punters want the World Cup. The federal government – which has invested significant financial and political capital in the bid – wants the World Cup. No amount of petty quibbling from the AFL and NRL will be able to destroy that consensus. Consequently, there are only two courses of action for them to follow: praying for the FFA to fail, and preparing to cope in the event that it succeeds.

Should the World Cup come to Australia in around a decade’s time, it could very well prove to be a turning point in this country’s sporting history. Thanks to the years of favourable publicity football would receive either side of the tournament, it could be the moment in which the once derided ‘wogball’ – long identified as a sleeping giant – finally gained ascendancy over its two bigger rivals. And if that was to happen, it would be almost impossible for Aussie Rules and league to ever wrest back control. So disregard all the false smiles and soothing words from Demetriou, Gallop and Lowy. In reality, these three are locked in fierce combat.

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Posted By: Nick Bendel - Category: AFL, Football (Soccer), Rugby League

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Western Sydney Football Club needs to take the smart approach

November 21st 2009 07:20

First Kevin Sheedy, then Jarryd Hayne and now Paul Kelly: the AFL’s newest baby has only just been born, and already it’s made a significant impact.

When Sheedy was announced as the inaugural coach of the Western Sydney Football Club a fortnight ago, many in the harbour city took note. When it was reported that Hayne was on the team’s hitlist, further headlines were generated. And with word recently emerging that Kelly is considering taking up a developmental role, even more interest has been sparked. All this attention can only be a good thing, right?

Well, yes and no. Those who insist that there’s no such thing as bad publicity are guilty of facile thinking, because the type of publicity somebody or something receives is often more important than the amount. As Sport: The Australian Disease has previously argued, winning the affection of western Sydney and the support of sponsors is going to pose an extraordinarily difficult long term challenge. For WSFC to succeed, it will have to convince people that it’s committed to the region, and that it’s going to be around forever. In other words, it has to establish itself as a credible entity.

Cheap publicity stunts, therefore, are a hindrance rather than a help. Unquestionably, the Hayne story would have aroused the interest of the locals, many of whom would have devoted rare attention to a code that they’re ignorant of, and even hostile to. But one suspects that a majority of those would have regarded with scorn the idea of a league star wanting to convert to an entirely foreign sport, or making a success of it if he did. And that scorn would then, in turn, have been directed to the party responsible for the idea- WSFC. So increased recognition would have come at the price of decreased credibility. That’s why there is such a thing as bad publicity.

The signing of Sheedy and the possible recruitment of Kelly, however, are examples of good publicity. While a lot of the league loving locals would possess only a dim understanding of the pair, there would be a vague recognition that the first was a champion coach and the second a champion player. Then would come the instinctive thought that if individuals of that calibre had chosen to get involved with the fledgling club, there must be something substantial about it.

Still, it would be wrong to place undue emphasis on publicity. That’s because WSFC needs to sink its roots very deeply into the western Sydney soil if it is to survive and thrive. As the Swans would attest, consolidation will not come before decades have passed and tens of millions of dollars have been spent. There is no short term fix to be had; only long term vision will enable the AFL’s 18th franchise to securely establish itself.

With that in mind, the Hayne flirtation looks even more foolish. Even if the Parramatta fullback could somehow be seduced, it is extremely unlikely that he would be able to turn himself into a star in a second code. And unless he could do that, the whole exercise would be pointless, because why would the region be inspired by the exertions of a middling footballer?

On the other hand, the appointment of Sheedy and the pursuit of Kelly look even more inspired. The former Essendon boss possesses greater experience than any of his contemporaries, meaning that there could be nobody better qualified to recruit staff, draft players and develop a flourishing culture. As for the Brownlow Medallist, he is revered in the Riverina zone in which he would be doing his developmental work, meaning that there could be nobody better qualified to convince talented young athletes to choose Aussie Rules over other sports.

With these two on the payroll, WSFC gives itself the best chance to build a robust structure. Clubs that have poor foundations go bust, because they lack credibility. Sponsors don’t want to sponsor them; players don’t want to play for them; supporters don’t want to support them. Conversely, clubs that have firm foundations are able to make it through the inevitable low points in the sporting cycle and ultimately prosper.

It is on this point that WSFC must resolutely focus. Building support and winning games will be difficult, especially in the short term. If, however, a robust structure is created, both should eventually arrive. It won’t be quick, it won’t be easy, and it certainly won’t be cheap. But if the club remains true to a long term vision, there’s a good chance that the AFL’s newest baby will grow to be a mature, healthy adult.

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Posted By: Nick Bendel - Category: AFL, Rugby League

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Should the Bears be woken from their hibernation?

March 30th 2009 13:30

The big issue to have dominated sporting circles recently has been expansion. There has been conjecture about which cities will play host to the A-League’s 11th and 12th clubs, discussion about where in Australia to locate a possible Super 15 franchise, grilling from a Senate committee over the AFL’s 18th team, and speculation that the Bears may be revived as the NRL’s 17th member.

Concurrently, an ideological debate has been simmering. Aside from the round ball game- which is the only one of the four footballing codes to boast a genuine national presence- arguments over what form this expansion should take have been occurring between those who might best be described as realists and visionaries. Should the safe option of branching out into friendly territory be chosen, as the realists maintain? Or are the visionaries right when they say that the only way to grow a sport is to establish a presence in a new market?

Before long, we will discover whether the ARU is controlled by realists or visionaries- assuming, of course, that SANZAR awards it the licence for the 15th franchise. As for the AFL and NRL, it appears as though those two fierce competitors are heading down different paths. While the former has made it clear that is looking to win over new fans, the latter seems to be focussed on further exploiting its existing supporter base.

In the recent Senate hearings, the AFL was forced to defend its decision to base its 18th club in western Sydney rather than Tasmania. Why, some of the hostile senators wanted to know, was one of the sport’s heartlands being ignored in favour of an apathetic region that already had a team to follow? Although it wasn’t expressed so crudely, the answer was twofold: the state is a small prize, and one that the governing body already has in its keeping.

Given its passion for Aussie Rules, Tasmania would doubtless offer strong support to any team that it could call its own. So, once all the start-up costs had been recouped, it could be expected to supply a regular source of revenue for the game. However, because the Apple Isle has a small economy and a population of just half a million, this revenue would be limited. And the potential gains become even smaller when it is appreciated that the locals already make a significant contribution to AFL coffers in the form of merchandise, television ratings and pay TV subscription packages- a contribution that can only be stretched so far. Expanding into Tasmania might provide the AFL with as close to a safe bet as it could get, but as all punters know, the lower the risk, the lower the returns. Why bother buying something that, for all intents and purposes, is already in your possession- especially when it’s scarcely worth what you’d pay for it? This is a question that the realists have been unable to provide a satisfactory answer for.

Consequently, the visionaries have won the day. The result is that the Gold Coast Football Club will enter the competition in 2011, followed by the controversial Western Sydney Football Club in 2012. This is in keeping with the AFL’s ideological commitment to growing new markets. Headquarters wants Aussie Rules to be Australia’s dominant winter code, which means that it will not settle for controlling four of the six states. It intends to reign supreme in Queensland and New South Wales, too. New markets cannot be grown in those states by expanding into Tasmania- new markets can only be grown in those states by expanding into those states.

As proof of its commitment, the wealthy AFL is going to spend tens of millions of dollars over the coming years to establish and then secure its new markets. For there is a big prize on offer: together, the two regions account for more than 10 per cent of the country’s population, and an even greater share of its GDP. Throw in Brisbane and the rest of Sydney, where the AFL expects to increase its market share on the back of the two new teams, and you have almost 40 per cent of the population. By contrast, little more than two per cent of Australians live in Tasmania.

In flirting with the idea of placing the old North Sydney on the Central Coast, the NRL is taking a different approach to its main rival. Different arguments are therefore being advanced. Where the AFL has been making calculations about markets and consumers, the rugby league community has largely concerned itself with emotion. According to Bears’ advocates, reviving one of the foundation members would generate a welcome dose of optimism and goodwill for a sport whose reputation has been tarnished by recent off-field incidents. At the same time, it would be a fitting reward for one of the game’s heartlands. Although it is impossible to say how seriously the issue is being considered by the NRL, Greg Florimo, the Bears’ general manager, has said that he believes the Central Coast venture has a 50 per cent chance of getting up. Perhaps he knows something that others don’t.

As league struggles to battle through the global financial crisis, the risks associated with expansion come into sharper focus. At a time when debt is regarded as poison, does a sport that is struggling with its finances, with declining popularity and with player retention really want to take a punt on the Bears? And for what? Just like Tasmania and the AFL, the Central Coast is essentially in the NRL’s pocket, meaning that the potential for growth is limited. Indeed, the situation looks even worse upon scrutiny. Not only does it have a smaller population (300,000) than Tasmania, but it would face competition from the 10 surrounding league teams, as well as the Central Coast Mariners and the Newcastle Jets. It is proper that consideration should be given to emotion- after all, emotion is the lifeblood of professional sport. But money is also very important. If the figures don’t add up, one cannot justify making a bad decision on the basis of sentiment, because clubs that don’t have the money to participate in professional competitions must inevitably suffer the agony of being cut. Just ask the North Sydney Bears.

For Aussie Rules to succeed with its two new teams, an enormous investment of time and money will be required. The AFL has said repeatedly that it understands this reality, and has the finances to back up its assurances. Should it realise its very expensive ambition of making GCFC and WSFC viable, it will simultaneously realise its grander ambition of national dominance. So while the risk is great, the potential returns are no less sizeable. For rugby league to succeed with its mooted venture, time and money (though in smaller quantities) will also be required. However, while the risk for the NRL would be quite large, the potential returns would be minimal. A flourishing Central Coast Bears would do little- if anything- to grow the game, and thus seems to be a pointless exercise. If establishing a presence in Melbourne was a triumph for the visionaries, and if expanding to the Gold Coast was a win for the realists, setting up camp on the Central Coast would be a win for neither party.

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Posted By: Nick Bendel - Category: AFL, Rugby League

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Bird purged! But might he fly his way back into the Cronulla nest?

August 28th 2008 14:44

During the time of Stalin, it was the fate of many senior Bolsheviks to fall foul of the Great Father of the Soviet Union. Typically, these ex-leaders would not merely be tortured and executed, but also deleted from the historical record, as if they had never existed. Their images would be airbrushed from photographs, their portraits would be removed from government buildings, their deeds would be edited out of encyclopaedias, their names would be taken out of textbooks. They would become ‘unpersons’.

Tony Zappia, the chief executive of the Cronulla Sharks, seems to be a student of history, because Greg Bird has just begun to disappear from his club’s historical record. Although he has yet to be airbrushed from the team photo, and although he is still on the contract list, he is no longer to be found amongst the player profiles
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Posted By: Nick Bendel - Category: AFL, Rugby League

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