Nick Bendel
Should the Bears be woken from their hibernation?
March 30th 2009 13:30
Concurrently, an ideological debate has been simmering. Aside from the round ball game- which is the only one of the four footballing codes to boast a genuine national presence- arguments over what form this expansion should take have been occurring between those who might best be described as realists and visionaries. Should the safe option of branching out into friendly territory be chosen, as the realists maintain? Or are the visionaries right when they say that the only way to grow a sport is to establish a presence in a new market?
Before long, we will discover whether the ARU is controlled by realists or visionaries- assuming, of course, that SANZAR awards it the licence for the 15th franchise. As for the AFL and NRL, it appears as though those two fierce competitors are heading down different paths. While the former has made it clear that is looking to win over new fans, the latter seems to be focussed on further exploiting its existing supporter base.
In the recent Senate hearings, the AFL was forced to defend its decision to base its 18th club in western Sydney rather than Tasmania. Why, some of the hostile senators wanted to know, was one of the sport’s heartlands being ignored in favour of an apathetic region that already had a team to follow? Although it wasn’t expressed so crudely, the answer was twofold: the state is a small prize, and one that the governing body already has in its keeping.
Given its passion for Aussie Rules, Tasmania would doubtless offer strong support to any team that it could call its own. So, once all the start-up costs had been recouped, it could be expected to supply a regular source of revenue for the game. However, because the Apple Isle has a small economy and a population of just half a million, this revenue would be limited. And the potential gains become even smaller when it is appreciated that the locals already make a significant contribution to AFL coffers in the form of merchandise, television ratings and pay TV subscription packages- a contribution that can only be stretched so far. Expanding into Tasmania might provide the AFL with as close to a safe bet as it could get, but as all punters know, the lower the risk, the lower the returns. Why bother buying something that, for all intents and purposes, is already in your possession- especially when it’s scarcely worth what you’d pay for it? This is a question that the realists have been unable to provide a satisfactory answer for.
Consequently, the visionaries have won the day. The result is that the Gold Coast Football Club will enter the competition in 2011, followed by the controversial Western Sydney Football Club in 2012. This is in keeping with the AFL’s ideological commitment to growing new markets. Headquarters wants Aussie Rules to be Australia’s dominant winter code, which means that it will not settle for controlling four of the six states. It intends to reign supreme in Queensland and New South Wales, too. New markets cannot be grown in those states by expanding into Tasmania- new markets can only be grown in those states by expanding into those states.
As proof of its commitment, the wealthy AFL is going to spend tens of millions of dollars over the coming years to establish and then secure its new markets. For there is a big prize on offer: together, the two regions account for more than 10 per cent of the country’s population, and an even greater share of its GDP. Throw in Brisbane and the rest of Sydney, where the AFL expects to increase its market share on the back of the two new teams, and you have almost 40 per cent of the population. By contrast, little more than two per cent of Australians live in Tasmania.
In flirting with the idea of placing the old North Sydney on the Central Coast, the NRL is taking a different approach to its main rival. Different arguments are therefore being advanced. Where the AFL has been making calculations about markets and consumers, the rugby league community has largely concerned itself with emotion. According to Bears’ advocates, reviving one of the foundation members would generate a welcome dose of optimism and goodwill for a sport whose reputation has been tarnished by recent off-field incidents. At the same time, it would be a fitting reward for one of the game’s heartlands. Although it is impossible to say how seriously the issue is being considered by the NRL, Greg Florimo, the Bears’ general manager, has said that he believes the Central Coast venture has a 50 per cent chance of getting up. Perhaps he knows something that others don’t.
As league struggles to battle through the global financial crisis, the risks associated with expansion come into sharper focus. At a time when debt is regarded as poison, does a sport that is struggling with its finances, with declining popularity and with player retention really want to take a punt on the Bears? And for what? Just like Tasmania and the AFL, the Central Coast is essentially in the NRL’s pocket, meaning that the potential for growth is limited. Indeed, the situation looks even worse upon scrutiny. Not only does it have a smaller population (300,000) than Tasmania, but it would face competition from the 10 surrounding league teams, as well as the Central Coast Mariners and the Newcastle Jets. It is proper that consideration should be given to emotion- after all, emotion is the lifeblood of professional sport. But money is also very important. If the figures don’t add up, one cannot justify making a bad decision on the basis of sentiment, because clubs that don’t have the money to participate in professional competitions must inevitably suffer the agony of being cut. Just ask the North Sydney Bears.
For Aussie Rules to succeed with its two new teams, an enormous investment of time and money will be required. The AFL has said repeatedly that it understands this reality, and has the finances to back up its assurances. Should it realise its very expensive ambition of making GCFC and WSFC viable, it will simultaneously realise its grander ambition of national dominance. So while the risk is great, the potential returns are no less sizeable. For rugby league to succeed with its mooted venture, time and money (though in smaller quantities) will also be required. However, while the risk for the NRL would be quite large, the potential returns would be minimal. A flourishing Central Coast Bears would do little- if anything- to grow the game, and thus seems to be a pointless exercise. If establishing a presence in Melbourne was a triumph for the visionaries, and if expanding to the Gold Coast was a win for the realists, setting up camp on the Central Coast would be a win for neither party.
| 143 |
| Vote |
subscribe to this blog