Nick Bendel
And the winner of the 15th franchise is…
March 12th 2009 23:50
For while the tripartite governing body resolved that the new team will play in the “Australian conference”, it deliberately refrained from taking the logical next step of agreeing that it will be an Australian team that plays in the Australian conference.
The Super 15, when it begins in 2011, is expected to become a 22 week competition. To begin with, each of the teams will play one another once, in keeping with the current system. They will then break into three conferences, with the five current New Zealand franchises participating in the New Zealand conference, the five current South African franchises participating in the South African conference, and the four current Australian franchises as well as the new franchise participating in the Australian conference. Again, each of the teams will play one another once. Then, the regular season will give way for a finals series that will probably incorporate six teams.
Common sense suggests that the newest Super member will have to be Australian. Besides finally giving all three countries equal representation, it would also be an acknowledgement of the bleedingly obvious fact that an Australian team is best placed to represent an Australian conference. And yet, at the recent meeting of the three partners in Dubai, no such agreement was entered into by the New Zealanders and South Africans, who believe that they have a strong case for playing host to the 15th franchise. Although this may seem strange, it is perfectly in keeping with the way that SANZAR plays its politics- namely, fiercely and wackily.
That explains why John O’Neill returned from the Middle East in a cautious and unassuming mood. “The thing I’ve really got to stress”, he explained, is that people shouldn’t assume “it is an ARU decision and it’s a done deal”. “That’s just not true. We have been saying consistently this is a SANZAR decision. SANZAR will decide where the additional team goes.” Yet while making sure to remain humble, the ARU chief executive did not lose the opportunity to apply a little subtle pressure to the South Africans, who loom as his chief rivals for the additional spot. “The only thing that has been agreed is that that team will play in the Australian conference. There is a reasonable presumption it should be in the vicinity. It doesn’t…make much sense for a team to be thousands of miles away and then playing in the Australian conference.”
If basing the 15th franchise in Australia is “a reasonable presumption”, the question of where in Australia it would be based is far more difficult. There is a quintet of contenders- Melbourne, western Sydney, the Gold Coast, Newcastle and Gosford- each of which boasts its own particular strengths, whilst being saddled with some obvious weaknesses.
The latter two are clear outsiders, given that both cities contain only about 300,000 people. Of these, Gosford appears to have the edge; while it is crying out for a sporting team to follow during the winter, its northern neighbour is already besotted with the Knights. The Gold Coast, though, looks like an even better candidate, albeit still an unlikely one. Home to over half a million people, the glitter strip is one of the fastest growing areas in Australia. However, securing sponsorship and support would be extremely difficult, considering that the city is already represented in the NRL and NBL, and has recently been granted entry into the AFL and A-League too.
That leaves the two heavyweights. If one was to focus on the positives, it would be said that western Sydney has a large population (1.85 million, making it the equal of Brisbane), a sizeable economy (the third largest in the country), an understanding of the game, and the almost certain guarantee of developing a compelling rivalry with the Waratahs. As for Melbourne, it has a larger population (3.8 million), a bigger economy, and a well-deserved reputation for being the sporting capital of Australia.
If one was to focus on the negatives, it would be said that the people of western Sydney have a clear preference for league over union, and that anybody who thinks otherwise would most likely have committed themselves to the Waratahs long ago. As for their southern cousins, it would be said that they have little affinity with the game, and that their hearts and wallets are already devoted to 14 AFL, NRL, NBL and A-League clubs.
The ARU is therefore confronted with an ideological dilemma in picking a winner between these two serious candidates. Does it choose the safe option of preaching to the converted, or does it take the risk of attempting to spread its message to the great mass of disinterested heathens? The former all but guarantees a return on investment; the latter holds out the prospect of substantially bigger returns, but at the risk of ruinous losses.
The history of sporting competitions trying to expand into unfriendly territory is a chequered one. Rugby league failed with the Western Reds and the Adelaide Rams, although with considerable nurturing it appears to have succeeded with the Melbourne Storm. The AFL came perilously close to losing both the Sydney Swans and Brisbane Lions, but can now claim that its enormous investment resulted in both clubs establishing themselves as fixtures. Financial concerns forced the NBL to cut the Singapore Slingers adrift after just two seasons, although O’Neill has vowed that the ARU will not allow the same thing to happen to the troubled Western Force.
What all this demonstrates is that for any competition hoping to sell its game to foreign markets, local interest will not reach sustainable levels without a substantial amount of time and money. That is the conclusion that the AFL has reached with its Western Sydney Football Club, and it is presumably one that the ARU has arrived at in regards to the proposed Melbourne franchise. If success is to be had in Victoria, it will certainly not come cheap.
These issues of time and money will be the key determinants not only of whether Melbourne receives the ARU’s endorsement, but also, assuming that it does, of whether the governing body is able to see the experiment through to a happy conclusion. Yet these are the two main areas in which it is lacking. The Australian Rugby Union of today is like the Soccer Australia of old- that is, a financially challenged organisation beset with politicking, whose obsession with deal making and number crunching and empire building encourages administrators to focus on the present. Melbourne could never hope to become a viable franchise unless the ARU was prepared to look far into the future and pump it with money. But what chance is there of that happening?
So when the ARU finds itself in a position to nominate the location of the 15th Super franchise, it needs to make sure that serious questions are asked. Should it turn out that sufficient foresight and unity and resources are capable of being mustered, expanding into Melbourne would be in the long-term interests of the game. If, on the other hand, it is to be business as usual at rugby headquarters, then the only realistic option is to award the prize to western Sydney. That is assuming, of course, that the newest Australian franchise doesn’t come out of Africa.
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Comment by Chris Champion
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Great overview Nick. Thoroughly good reading.